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Bold promises to make the city more affordable for residents catapulted progressive candidate the incoming mayor to his surprising victory on Tuesday. Included are fare-free transit, universal childcare, and a large-scale expansion in low-cost housing.

However, turning the city cost-effective for inhabitants is an expensive government task, and many economists and politicians to Mamdani’s conservative side say he confronts too many hurdles to meaningfully deliver on his signature ideas.

Adding complexity to matters is the national government, which will almost certainly pull funding for New York in an effort to sabotage Mamdani and create funding gaps that make it more difficult to pay for fresh initiatives.

Additionally, the city must get state government authorization to adjust several revenue streams. An analyst pointed to the state legislature blocking the city from increasing pet registration costs in 2014 due to a dispute between the incumbent at the time and a lawmaker.

“A striking way of stating the issue is the City can’t raise pet permit charges without state legislature approval, and it was true then, and it remains the case today,” the expert noted.

Nonetheless, he and other experts point to favorable conditions: Mamdani’s proposals are widely supported and would solve basic problems. The Democratic party now hold large majorities in the legislature, and several identify economic and political pathways to making the proposals a success.

In what ways could Mamdani finance his ambitious program? Here’s a detailed look by revenue source and proposal.

Generating Revenue

His team projects it could generate approximately $10bn by raising the corporate tax rate, taxes on the affluent, and existing fee and tax collections.

Detractors claim companies and the high-earners will relocate, but that is disputed by credible research. Moreover, the corporate tax is on earnings made in the state regardless of where a company is located, rendering the point largely irrelevant.

Business Levy Hike

Mamdani estimates a state tax increase between 7.25% and eleven point five percent on corporate profits would produce around $5bn, much of which would be directed to the city. State leaders would have to approve the proposal. Legislative leaders have previously supported similar proposals, but the governor opposes raising taxes.

However, the governor supports childcare for all, a very popular initiative because childcare is commonly seen as cost-prohibitive, stated an expert. It would be challenging for centrist lawmakers to “oppose passing a landmark initiative”, he continued. “No one argues ‘We shouldn’t do anything to reduce childcare costs.’”

What’s been lacking, the expert said, has been a leader like Mamdani who says: “Yes, it costs money, and we’re gonna raise taxes to get it done.”

Raising Taxes on the Affluent

Mamdani’s plan aims to generating four billion dollars with a two percent hike on those making more than $1m annually. Although it’s a city tax, the state legislature must approve the rise, and the idea is typically opposed by centrist Democrats.

However there is a political pathway, the expert noted. Increasing taxes on the wealthy is broadly popular and, similar to the business tax hike, allocating the funds to support favored initiatives helps to sell in Albany.

Rent Freeze

Regarding cost, a pause on rent hikes on rent-controlled apartments is the simplest to enforce – it’s minimally costly. But, a freeze must be approved by the rent guidelines board, and there may not be sufficient backing on it before Mamdani appoints members with his own appointments.

Free and Fast Buses

Mamdani projects free buses will cost at least $700m, which factors in an fare-dodging percentage of forty-eight percent. Observers say Mamdani could probably pay for the expense by optimizing or cutting other programs in the city’s one hundred sixteen billion dollar city budget.

City-Owned Food Markets

A trial initiative for five public food markets that would be established in underserved “food deserts” is estimated at $60m and could additionally be paid for by shifting priorities in the one hundred sixteen billion dollar spending plan.

Constructing Affordable Housing Units

Numerous people to the right of Mamdani have written off the plan to spend approximately one hundred billion dollars developing 200,000 affordable units over 10 years, largely because it would require substantial borrowing. The expert clarified those arguing against this aspect largely overlook that the initiative is does not involve to borrow $100bn immediately – the liability would be accrued and paid down in tranches over multiple administrations.

He emphasized the plan is not for no-cost homes, but cost-effective residences that would produce income to pay down loans. Furthermore, the developments could in part be privately financed.

“This is how the proposal is feasible,” he said.

Universal Childcare

Implementing universal childcare would cost between $2.5bn and twelve billion dollars by most estimates, depending on whether it is a city or state program and other factors. Funding is the major uncertainty – will the business and high-earner levies pass Albany? An expert said he anticipated some compromise, as is typical with big proposals.

“Proposals that Mamdani promised will likely be scaled back,” the expert remarked. “And the governor’s expressed resistance to tax increases could face reality – she likely cannot achieve the things she desires on the spending side without compromise on the tax side.”