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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.