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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.